2010 Economic Forecast: This Recession Wasn’t Any Different than Past Recessions
January 9th, 2010Is it really different this time? In other words, is this recession really different from past recessions? I argue only in terms of magnitude. It was a bad recession, but it ultimately wasn’t any fundamentally different. Will the recovery be muted? I actually don’t think so. I just think we went down so hard that it will take a long time to recover. Unemployment, for example, will be relatively high through 2010, but mainly because it got so high in the first place. I expect fairly consistent improvement in all economic indicators through the year.If you disagree with the above, fair enough. Clearly the Fed should remain accomodative if the economy isn’t growing. But what if we are recovering?